How Close Are We To War With Iran?
Iranian Soldiers with standard issue hipster shades and beards.
Iran has long been a secluded regime led by a tyrant and represented by the insane but war never seemed probable until Iran started thinking of killing diplomats. Iran planned to assassinate the Saudi ambassador to the United States on American soil and while it got Iran the attention they seem to crave they assumed the response would be minimal. While the American response has been muted the war drums have been banging elsewhere. Israel has been having heated debates on conducting a military strike on Iran and Israels ally, the United States, hasn’t said a word.
The spotlight has been refocused on Iran’s nuclear program that everyone believes is for nuclear weapons. Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is the one beating the loudest on the war drum but half of his cabinet seems weary of a strike fearing that it could lead to war; it would. In the meantime someone, probably Netanyahu, has been leaking the heated cabinet debate summaries to the press in an effort to scare Iran straight. Israel isn’t the only one who wants a military intervention for Iran. According to the Guardian the UK is also preparing for a military strike within Iran.
Iran is doing the typical regime PR campaign that is nothing more than a huge cloud of smoke.
Next week the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is to deliver its report on Iran’s nuclear program and it is expected to reveal details of secret plans to build nuclear weapons. This has been a concern of the United States ever since Iran decided it needed a nuclear program. It is widely believed that most of the centrifuges that can produce weapons grade uranium are being hidden inside a military base in Qom, about 100 miles south-west of Tehran. Iran is supposed to have all the technology and material needed to produce nuclear bombs within 12 months. While all of this sounds terrifying no one seems ready to deliver a blow until the United States puts one foot through the door.
In anticipation of a potential attack, British military planners are examining where best to deploy Royal Navy ships and submarines equipped with Tomahawk cruise missiles over the coming months as part of what would be an air and sea campaign. Source: Guardian
With the NATO intervention in Libya over everyone seems to be saying ‘what next?’ Another intervention in the Middle East might be the straw that breaks the camels back and put the entire region into chaos that cannot be controlled with the giant problem of nuclear material and potential bombs being up for grabs. With this giant weight on anyone’s shoulders who decides to intervene one would need allies. NATO has said that it will not take part in any intervention in Libya and is not planning any intervention. The UK seems destined to stick to a limited support role and is incapable of mounting an offensive on their own.
“Beyond [12 months], we couldn’t be sure our missiles could reach them,” the source said. “So the window is closing, and the UK needs to do some sensible forward planning. The US could do this on their own but they won’t.
“So we need to anticipate being asked to contribute. We had thought this would wait until after the US election next year, but now we are not so sure.
“President Obama has a big decision to make in the coming months because he won’t want to do anything just before an election.” According to a source with ties to Britain’s MoD.
China even seems a bit worried and is jumping in on the debate in a more aggressive stance than their usual neutral. China opposes the use of force and has asked for Iran to be able to study the IAEA report’s allegations before they’re published but they also said they would play a “constructive role” in seeking a peaceful resolution to the matter.
Oddly enough I have to agree with China. Another conflict is exactly what the United States doesn’t need. If another nation such as Israel engaged first and was willing to bear the brunt then that is a different matter but the U.S. nor Obama can afford another costly “intervention”. Libya proved that even when we decide to take the backseat our allies shove us to the front because we don’t know when to say no. While Iran poses a huge threat to regional stability they don’t pose any major threat to the U.S. and if Israel has proved anything over the years it is that they can handle themselves. A single military strike on Iran is possible but Iran won’t let it go unpunished and an all out war with the sizable Iranian military just isn’t necessary. Even if we destroy their current nuclear program they will just start another. Everyone was terrified that North Korea would hit the red button but Kim Jong-il has been to busy shopping for new tracksuits to care. The United States shouldn’t succumb to the pressure of our allies. If our allies want the Iranian threat dealt with they should do it themselves.
Source: Guardian UK Source: Guardian UK (2) Source: Guardian UK (3) Source: Guardian UK (4) Source: Reuters Source: Haaretz
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Hipsters? They look good lol. Even Ahmadinejad is strangely attractive. This must be their strategy for war. Be too good looking for people to want to fight them.
On a more serious note, I think war with Iran is pretty unlikely at this stage since the Europe is in so much economic turmoil and America is stuck with two wars that haven’t quite ended yet. You’re right when you say Israel is going to be the one most likely involved in conflict with Iran and rightfully so, however their military record speaks for itself. Iran has no such experience defending itself like Israel and I’m also certain they can look after themselves. Should they call on their allies, I can imagine extensive public debate at home before Americans finally relent and send aid in the form of supplies or money or training with troops as a very last and desperate resort. Another factor is the considerable influence of China. If even they don’t want a war with Iran, I’m sure they will do their utmost to prevent it.
The largest international security issue at hand right now in my opinion is China’s strategic maneuvering to take advantage of Europe’s financial woes to gain the upper hand. It offered to bail out the EU and we have already witnessed evidence of China oiling up its new friends in Africa, South America and Asia in the form of monetary aid. Tied in with its hardball stance in the Asia Pacific with naval exercises and territorial disputes, China is the quiet, dangerous and unfathomable enemy. Iran is not the problem here (how could we hate them in those stylish glasses?!). Plus I’m sure if they went apeshit, all the other rich Arab countries will quickly put them in their place because everyone agrees they’re crazy.
Hipsters
You think Ahmadinejad is attractive? I think that is the first time I have ever heard that! Well maybe the Iranian military strategy is to get all of their soldiers jobs at Abercrombie and Fitch after their stint?
China is a huge sneaky threat but no one seems willing to voice their opinion against China. I’d like to think that we are being just as devious to China but I think that is more of a long shot than anything. I’d also like to think that China’s brazen underhandedness is going to come back to bite them in the ass. We’ve seen Communism crumble before and China can’t keep the death grip on its people forever.
I’d like to see the Arab nations assert more control in their region. They’re so determined to keep the west out but they don’t bother taking matters into their own hands. That’s why it was nice to see various Arab nations take part in Libya. If Iran started going crazy and the idea of another American intervetntion was on the table I’d think that the UAE and Saudi Arabia would ring up the supreme leader and give him an ultimatum.
Oh, and their beards are awesome too.
The beards are pretty cool but the sunglasses are just hilarious.