Iran Postures As Israel Threatens

The Iranian military is currently conducting war games in Southern Iran as it continues to show force after making threats to close the vital Strait of Hormuz. The elite Revolutionary Guard began military exercises Saturday and naval war games are in the works, and have been for weeks according to Iran, as the word spreads about a nearing strike by Israel on the nations nuclear sites. The new ground operations by Iran appear to be unscheduled as they were not announced with the naval games several weeks ago. This comes after the Iranian navy buttoned up 10 days of naval exercises in the Gulf but the involvement of the Revolutionary Guard, which is controlled by the Supreme Leader, represents a stronger presence.

The use of the Revolutionary Guard comes on the heels of a threat by the Supreme Leader, Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, that that any attack “would be 10 times worse for the interests of the United States” than it would be for Iran. He also issued another threat that Iran would directly support terrorist and militant groups that oppose Israel however it is believed by intelligence agencies that this has been happening for quite some time. Iran is believed to have very strong ties to Hezbollah. Khamenei said that Iran “had its own tools” to respond to threats of war and would use them “if necessary,” the semiofficial Mehr news agency reported. He also said the threats would not stop Iran from continuing its nuclear program, which it has long maintained is for peaceful purposes.

Iran’s threats don’t hold up under scrutiny however. When the United States announced new broad sanctions against Iran and Iranian oil they threatened to close the Strait of Hormuz and send oil prices sky high and since they’ve made those bold threats nothing has happened. They also threatened the United States navy by announcing they knew where one of our aircraft carriers was and not to send it through the Strait. Again they went silent as the US Navy sailed through the Strait with not one but 2 carriers where it for a short time had 3 in the Gulf. Instead of backing away from their nuclear program they have allowed the entire nation to suffer under the sanctions and push them further towards economic collapse.

The wild card in this matter is Israel. They’re the nation closest to the threat and the one who has the most to lose. Think of it this way, if Mexico wanted to see the United States destroyed and wanted to develop nuclear weapons how would you feel and how would you want the government to act? Some of the things Iran has said, especially the mention of supporting militant groups that oppose Israel, can be seen as direct threats to Israel’s security and if proven true an act of war. Israel has become quite nervous about Iran’s nuclear program and with good reason since no one but Iran believes it is for peaceful purposes. Israels leadership has been slowly pushing for direct action against Iran’s nuclear sites but their main ally, the United States, is in the midst of an election year. We won’t act as it would tank the economy and President Obama’s reelection chances.  This leaves Israel backed into a corner and as history has shown no one puts baby Israel into a corner. The word has leaked through our Secretary of Defense, Leon Panetta, that Israel is within a few months time of striking Iran on its own which could toss the region into turmoil.

War however seems inevitable with Iran’s Supreme Leader saying “Iran will not withdraw. Then what happens?” asked Khamenei. “In conclusion, the West’s hegemony and threats will be discredited” in the Middle East. He also stated that a military strike would not deter Iran from continuing their nuclear program. I for one don’t see the United States falling on its very sharp sword and lose face in the region. Doing that would give the Iranian leadership and other states that are not friendly to the U.S. reason to believe that they can get away with damn near anything.

The American people don’t want another war in a region where it seems wars cannot be won the conventional way. According to most polls less than half of the nation supports military action against Iran. The polls might shift if Iran gets a nuclear bomb but by then it will be to late and this is the quandary the politicians and military leaders find themselves in. Do they strike and save the world from a nuclear armed Iran and risk being voted out of office or do they wait and allow Iran to get nuclear weapons and potentially start WWIII? There’s no doubt that we’ll know by Spring when Israel is allegedly going to strike.

Sources:

Associated Press  The Spec Associated Foreign PressReason: Poll